chrisrockoscarsChris Rock is the right host at the right time — the best comedian on the subject of race (of all time) at the most racially charged Academy Awards in history. He was already scheduled to host Sunday’s awards show when the Oscar nominations were announced last month, when the Academy failed to nominate any nonwhite actors for the second straight year and when, just a few days later, on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Jada Pinkett Smith and Spike Lee said they would be boycotting the ceremony.

It’s true. There are not enough roles for African Americans, specifically the types of roles that usually receive Oscar nominations, the clichéd, so-called “important” roles. From 2001 to 2013, black actors and actresses received 28 nominations, winning nine Academy Awards. For playing Muhammed Ali, Ray Charles, Idi Amin, Nelson Mandela, two slaves, one maid and other exercises in hand-wringing based on a true story.

Women experience a similar problem. Four of this year’s Best Actress nominees come from overwrought arthouse movies, the kind that reach for Oscar gold. Jennifer Lawrence, who proved her mettle in Joy, is the only exception. Then there’s Charlize Theron, who road shotgun with Max in Mad Max: Fury Roadwith one arm. The film received 10 nominations. Theron was not among them.

Some of my other favorite performances of the year: Michael Keaton (Spotlight), Samuel L. Jackson (The Hateful Eight), Ryan Reynolds (Mississippi Grind) and Channing Tatum (Magic Mike XXL).

Magic Mike XXL (or Zen and the Art of Stripping) received no nominations. Which brings us back to Pinkett Smith, who played the sexiest, most empowered strip club owner in movie history — too sexy and too empowered for the Academy.

Sunday’s award winners will be white. But the makers of show itself are black: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences president Cheryl Boone Isaacs, producer Reginald Hudlin (Django Unchained, NAACP Image Awards) and Rock, who called the Oscars “the White BET Awards” last month.

Rock’s monologue should be more anticipated than any of the evening’s results, because saying #OscarsSoWhite is really just another way of saying #OscarsSoPredictable

Predicting Academy Award winners isn’t art. It’s metrics. Based on who played a handicapped person or who won the Screen Actors Guild award the previous month or some other nonsense. It’s no different than predicting the Democratic primaries or the Cy Young Award — the people who care about such things have done the research. In this case, 538, Gold Derby and Metacritic are the go-to sources.

But I’ve done the work for you. What follows are the nominees, the winners and their acceptance speeches from a recent — but less prestigious — award show:

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

WILL WIN | The Revenant

SHOULD WIN | Spotlight

SKINNY | A volatile category. The Revenant has pulled ahead of Spotlight and The Big Short in the past month.

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BEST DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

WILL WIN | Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

SHOULD WIN | George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

SKINNY | Only two directors have won back-to-back Oscars. Inarritu, who won for Birdman last year, will be the third.

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

WILL WIN | Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

SHOULD WIN | DiCaprio

SKINNY | Nothing can stop DiCaprio. Not a bear. Not Eddie Redmayne in a dress.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

WILL WIN | Brie Larson, Room

SHOULD WIN | Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

SKINNY | Larson played a woman who was captured and raped, who suffered from depression and malnutrition. She should have accepted the Oscar during the movie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

WILL WIN | Sylvester Stallone, Creed

SHOULD WIN | Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

SKINNY | Closest race among the six big categories. Stallone is the sentimental choice, Rylance the merit-based one.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

WILL WIN | Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

SHOULD WIN | Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina

SKINNY | It’s Vikander’s year — no matter the film. Unless the film is The Man from U.N.C.L.E. or Burnt.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Matt Charman and Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, Bridge of Spies

Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Pete Doctor, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out

Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Jonathan Herman, Andrea Berloff, Straight Outta Compton

WILL WIN | Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

SHOULD WIN | Pete Doctor, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out

SKINNY | Screenwriting dream team: McCarthy and Doctor wrote Up together.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short

Brooklyn, Nick Hornby

Phyllis Nagy, Carol

Drew Goddard, The Martian

Emma Donoghue, Room

WILL WIN | Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short

SHOULD WIN | Charles Randolph and Adam McKay, The Big Short

SKINNY | The Academy will forgive (or reward) McKay for his previous work: Anchorman, Talladega Nights, Step Brothers, The Other Guys, Anchorman 2.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Anomalisa

Boy & the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

WILL WIN | Inside Out

SHOULD WIN | Inside Out

SKINNY | Seemed like an obvious Best Picture nominee.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FILM

Amy

Cartel Land

The Look of Silence

What Happened, Miss Simone?

Winter of Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

WILL WIN | Amy

SHOULD WIN | Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief

SKINNY | Going Clear includes a 15-minute section on dumb cult member Tom Cruise. He’s never been better.

BEST FOREIGN FILM

Embrace of the Serpent

A War

Mustang

Son of Saul

Theeb

WILL WIN | Son of Saul

SHOULD WIN | Son of Saul

BEST SCORE

Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies

Carter Burwell, Carol

Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

Johann Johannsson, Sicario

John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN | Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

SHOULD WIN | Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Earned It” by The Weekend, Fifty Shades of Grey

“Til It Happens to You” by Lady Gaga, The Hunting Ground

“Manta Ray” by J. Ralph and Anthony Hegarty, Racing Extinction

“Writing’s on the Wall” by Sam Smith, Spectre

“Simple Song #3” by David Lang, Youth

WILL WIN | “Til It Happens to You” by Lady Gaga, The Hunting Ground

SHOULD WIN | “See You Again” by Wiz Khalifa (featuring Charlie Puth), Furious 7

SKINNY | “See You Again” was the No. 1 song for 12 weeks. #OscarsSoWhite

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Edward Lachman, Carol

Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant

Roger Deakins, Sicario

WILL WIN | The Revenant

BEST EDITING

Hank Corwin, The Big Short

Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road

Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant

Tom McArdle, Spotlight

Maryann Brandon, Mary Jo Markey, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN | Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich, Bridge of Spies

Eve Stewart, Michael Standish, The Danish Girl

Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson, Mad Max: Fury Road

Arthur Max, Celia Bobak, The Martian

Jack Fisk, Hamish Purdy, The Revenant

WILL WIN | Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Sandy Powell, Carol

Sandy Powell, Cinderella

Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl

Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road

Jacqueline West, The Revenant

WILL WIN | Cinderella

BEST MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

Love Larson, Eva Von Bahr, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, Damian Martin, Mad Max: Fury Road

Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert A. Pandini, The Revenant

WILL WIN | Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND MIXING

Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Drew Kunin, Bridge of Spies

Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, Ben Osmo, Mad Max: Fury Road

Paul Massey, Mark Taylor, Mac Ruth, The Martian

Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Randy Thom, Chris Duesterdiek, The Revenant

Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Suart Wilson, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN | Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND EDITING

Mark A. Mangini, David White, Mad Max: Fury Road

Oliver Tarney, The Martian

Martin Hernandez, Lon Bender, The Revenant

Alan Robert Murray, Sicario

Matthew Wood, David Acord, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN | Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Williams Ardington, Sara Bennett, Ex Machina

Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams, Mad Max: Fury Road

Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence, Steven Warner, The Martian

Richard McBride, Matt Shumway, Jason Smith, Cameron Waldbauer, The Revenant

Roger Guyett, Pat Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

WILL WIN | Mad Max: Fury Road

SKINNY | Nerd alert: the best chance for Star Wars to win a trophy.

BEST SHORT FILM

Ave Maria

Day One

Everything Will Be Okay

Shok

Stutterer

WILL WIN | Ave Maria

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Bear Story

We Can’t Live Without Cosmos

Prologue

Sanjay’s Super Team

World of Tomorrow

WILL WIN | Sanjay’s Super Team

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Body Team 12

War Within the Walls

Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Last Day of Freedom

WILL WIN | Body Team 12